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28 April 2010

Why is V-League unpredictable ?

Before a new V-League season starts, people always predict some names to be title favourites, some to be relegated and some to be either champions or relegated!

For some recent years, level of V-league clubs are very close. Some can stand out of the rest but they can never dominate other clubs in style.

The gap of points was also very small. A few victories can bring a club from dangerous zone back to title race while a few defeats can be a nightmare and cost a coach his job. For instance, HAGL started their last season with 3 consecutive defeats but round 12 saw them at the second place of the table. However, at the the end of V-league 2009, HAGL was one of seven clubs fighting to avoid relegation. Ha Noi T&T was another good example, staying at the bottom of the table after the first phase of V-league 2009 but climbed to one of top positions when the season ended.

This season is no exception. As one third of V-league 2010 have passed, two V-League contender HAGL and GDT Long An are fighting at the bottom of the table while relegation candidate Dong Thap are flying high. 'Galaxy' Hai Phong are struggling and Ha Noi T&T are at top position but it's still too early to give a prediction about this season.

Looking at these figures of some SEA top leagues for last 2 seasons:

V-league 2008: Champions earned averagely 1.8 points per game, having 9 points (11.5% of max points available) above midtable club and 19 points (24.4%) above relegation zone.
V-league 2009: Champions earned averagely 1.9 points per game, having 15 points (19,2%) above midtable club and 19 points (24,4%) above relegation zone.

S-league 2008: Champions earned averagely 2.3 points per game, having 36 points (36%) above midtable club and about 60 points (60%) above worst teams.
S-league 2009: Champions earned averagely 2.2 points per game, having 29 points (32%) above midtable club and about 47 points (52%) above worst teams.

Thai PL 2008: Champions earned averagely 2.0 points per game, having 24 points (26,6%) above midtable club and 32 points (36%) above relegation zone.
Thai PL 2009: Champions earned averagely 2.2 points per game, having 29 points (32%) above midtable club and 35 points (39%) above relegation zone.

ISL 08-09: Champions earned averagely 2.4 points per game, having 33 points (32%) above midtable club and 49 points (48%) above relegation zone.
ISL 09-1010 (round 30): Leader earned averagely 2.1 points per game, having 22 points (24%) above midtable club and 26 points (29%) above relegation zone.

Just some numbers to prove that V-League is the most congested, unpredictable and unclear league around. Seriously, VFF needs to add more teams to V-league!

2 comments:

  1. It is strange how the gap in the V-League is rather small, and yes, in theory anyone could win it, or certain move from bottom to top with a few back to back victories.

    One thing that does stand out to me though is that the league ahs had a recent history of teams winning the league title back to back, for instance, Binh Duong in 07 and 08; Honag Anh Gia Lai in 04 and 03 and Song Lam Nghe An in 00 and 01.

    So although the league is close on points total, it does appear that they're only a few clubs that really can sustain a title challenge.

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  2. Good to see you back blogging.

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